GLOBAL ECONOMY SHORT REPORT

GLOBAL ECONOMY SHORT REPORT

The report title is: A BRIEF ASSESSMENT OF THE PATH OF INFLATION IN X [name of the country).

Aim: To assess the path of inflation in the country of your choice.

Submission Deadline: One electronic copy submitted through StudyNet by MONDAY 23 November 2020 23.59

Assessment weight: 25 per cent of the final module mark.

Structure and Content of Your Report

Word length 400 words (plus or minus 10%).

● 1: Introduction

State briefly the purpose of the report [word guidance 20 words]

● 2: The Inflation Path

– Briefly describe the pattern of inflation over the period 2007 to 2020 (use annualised figures). Put this data into a Table (Table 1) and show the data in a graph (numbered as Figure 1). [Word guidance 20 words]

● 3: Economic Growth and the Output Gap

– Briefly describe the pattern of GDP growth from 2007 to 2020 (use GDP data at constant prices showing the change in GDP on the previous year). For this, draw a second Figure (Figure 2) and add the GDP data to your Table 1).

– Calculate the five-year moving average of GDP growth (2007 to 2020), inserting this data into your Table (for 2007 you will need the GDP data for 2003 to 2007 inclusive). Use this data to plot a second line on Figure 2 to represent trend growth. Briefly describe this pattern of trend growth and the output gap. State any weaknesses of the method used to show the output gap. [Word guidance 40 words]

● 4: The Evolution of Unemployment

Draw a third figure, Figure 3 to show the evolution of unemployment 2007 to 2020. Briefly describe the path of unemployment. [Word guidance 20 words]

● 5: Explanation of Inflation

– Write a short, reasoned explanation of the factors you consider have driven the path of inflation in your chosen country. Support your explanation with evidence, including reference to that in Figures 2 and 3. [word guidance 250 words]

● 6: Conclusion

Based on the arguments in your report and any other theoretical material, write a brief reasoned statement on the path you expect inflation to take in the coming five years [Word guidance 50 words]

The above points should form the core of the material covered, but you are free to add other material of relevance.

Presentation of Material: The report must be presented in standard report format with a clear heading, followed by your student number. DO NOT INCLUDE a title page, list of contents or appendices.

The sub-sections listed above should be used and numbered as above.

A list of references in alphabetical order must follow the Conclusion. The report must be paginated. Figures and Tables must be numbered consecutively (Figure 1, 2; etc; Table 1, 2; etc., with titles and data sources. On Figures, the axis units must be clear either on the axes or from the title). The line chart for Figure 2 (GDP) will require a key to distinguish the two lines.

Presentation of Graphics (see below)

Word length is subject to a tolerance of plus or minus 10 per cent -with cumulative 10 per cent penalties being applied for every 10 per cent outside this range). The list of references, words used in Figures and Tables and quotations do not count towards the word totals. As normal, plagiarism will be penalised.

NOTE: Check the IMF database to make sure that the data you require is available for the country you have chosen

DATA SOURCE: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, October 2020

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLs/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending

Select: By Countries (country-level data)

Clear all countries, then select the one you have chosen

For GDP select GDP at constant prices, per cent change

For inflation select: Inflation average consumer prices per cent change

For unemployment select: Per cent of total labour force

Example of Table Presentation

Table 1: Inflation, Economic Growth and Unemployment 2007-2020 in X (name of country)

Year Average Consumer Price Inflation % Annualised Change in GDP % Five-Year GDP Moving Average % Unemployment % of the labour force
2007



2008



2009



2010



2011



2012



2013



2014



2015



2016



2017



2018



2019



2020



Note: Data for 2020 is a forecast

Source: IMF 2020

Example of Graphics Presentation

Figure 1: Evolution of GDP and the Output Gap 2007 to 2020 in X (name of country)

GDP at constant prices, % change on previous year

Trend Growth: GDP at constant prices, five year moving average % change

Source: IMF 2020

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